Russia rejects any “freezing” of the current frontline, continues to demand Ukraine’s full capitulation, ISW says. Ukraine attacks a Russian air base in Crimea. Between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops killed in war with Russia, according to The Economist’s estimate.
Russia rejects any “freezing” of current frontline, continues to demand Ukraine’s full capitulation, ISW says
Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Tuesday. The below paragraphs are quoted from the update.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin claimed on November 26 that Russia is open to negotiations but stated that Russia “categorically rejects” any “freezing” of the current frontline or the creation of a demilitarized zone. Naryshkin alleged that the “elimination” of the reasons that “caused” Russia to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the only way to ensure peace — demonstrating that Russia continues to uncompromisingly demand Ukraine’s full capitulation.
The Kremlin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine relinquish areas of the four Ukrainian oblasts that the Kremlin has illegally annexed and that Russian forces do not currently occupy. ISW also recently forecasted that the Russian military command is likely planning how to advance into the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — notably not one of the four illegally annexed oblasts — in support of Russia’s longstanding objective to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian military’s rate of advance since Fall 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterize the gradual and tactical nature of Russia’s recent advances. ISW assesses that Russian forces have gained 574 square kilometers since November 1, 2024 — an average rate of 22 square kilometers per day. This is remarkably less than the 1,265 square kilometers per day that ISW assesses Russian forces were gaining in March 2022. Reuters’ November 26 report that Russian forces “control” over 80 percent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is also misleading.
ISW assesses that while Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces only occupy about 66 percent of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have occupied almost the entirety of Luhansk Oblast since Fall 2022 but have occupied significantly less territory in Donetsk Oblast throughout the war.
ISW recently assessed that Russian forces still need to seize over 8,000 square kilometers of territory to achieve the Kremlin’s self-defined objective of seizing the territory of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in roughly one year should Russian forces continue their recent relatively quicker rate of advance — which is not a given.
Russian forces notably have been bypassing Ukrainian strongpoints, and Ukraine still has several well-defended cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, that Russian forces likely cannot seize as rapidly as they have with the rural fields near Pokrovsk.
Ukraine attacks Russian air base in Crimea
A series of explosions rocked Sevastopol in occupied Crimea on Wednesday morning. The Russian Defense Ministry said the peninsula was attacked by Ukrainian aircraft-type drones. Air defense systems intercepted 25 drones over the Black Sea and the peninsula itself, the message continues.
The Kremlin-installed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, wrote that there were five attacking drones and all of them were shot down over the sea. He responded to residents’ lament that an air raid alert was not declared to warn of the attack, by saying that alerts were only imposed when more than 20 drones were threatening the city.
He also said two missiles were destroyed over the sea. The Russian defense ministry did not mention the missiles in its report.
A number of Telegram channels said that explosions were heard near the Belbek air base. Around 40 drones, Neptune anti-ship missiles, and other unidentified missiles, possibly, Storm Shadow, targeted the north-eastern part of Crimea, propaganda Telegram channel Mash said, adding that all targets were destroyed. Falling fragments fell close to the Kachinsky highway near Orlovka, it added.
Between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops killed in war with Russia, The Economist estimates
The Economist puts the number of Ukrainian troops killed since the invasion at 60,000-100,000. A further 400,000 have been injured and discharged from the military, the report reads. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
To quantify Ukraine’s losses since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 The Economist started by collecting data on battle deaths from leaked or published reports by intelligence agencies, defence officials, researchers and open-source intelligence. These reports are difficult to verify independently. And soldiers who are missing, and presumed dead, are not always recorded in the data.
Nevertheless, they offer an approximation of the death toll. They suggest that at least 60,000-100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died so far. Perhaps a further 400,000 are too injured to fight on. These numbers do not include civilian deaths, on which there is strikingly little data. Many tens of thousands of civilians are believed to have been killed.
Data from UAlosses, a website, suggest that at least 60,435 soldiers have died since 2022.
The figures suggest that more than 0.5% of Ukraine’s pre-war population of men of fighting age (18-49-year-olds) have been killed. The data from UAlosses are not comprehensive and not all soldiers’ ages are known. The actual share of men who have died in the war is higher. The share of those too injured to keep fighting is even greater: assuming that six to eight Ukrainian soldiers are severely wounded for every one who is killed in battle, nearly one in 20 men of fighting age is dead or too wounded to fight on.
A report in the Wall Street Journal in November, citing anonymous Western intelligence officials, said that up to 200,000 Russian soldiers have died so far. The Economist’s most recent estimate, published July 2024, said that 106,000-140,000 Russian troops had died as of June 21st.
In both countries battle deaths as a share of population are higher than those that America suffered in the Vietnam and Korean wars combined.
Their combat death toll is fast approaching America’s losses in the second world war. Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022, not including deaths of foreign fighters it has recruited, dwarf the number of casualties from all its wars since 1945 combined.
