Russia’s goal of Ukrainian capitulation and destruction of NATO remains unchanged, ISW says. Germany will help Ukraine produce long-range weapons. Russia has massed enough troops in Kursk to launch an attack on Sumy region, Ukraine’s border guard service says.
Russia’s goal of Ukrainian capitulation and destruction of NATO remains unchanged, ISW says
Western insider reporting about Kremlin demands to end the war in Ukraine continues to align with repeated public statements from Kremlin officials outlining Russia’s demands, indicating that Russia’s goal of Ukrainian capitulation and destruction of NATO remains unchanged, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Wednesday, May 28.
Reuters reported on May 28 that three Russian sources familiar with the peace negotiations stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Western states to submit a “written” pledge stipulating that NATO will not expand eastward; Ukrainian neutrality; sanctions relief; the unfreezing of Russian assets in the West; and unspecified protections for Russian speakers in Ukraine.
Kremlin officials have repeatedly used allegations that the Ukrainian government is discriminating against Russian-speakers in Ukraine to justify Russia’s calls for Ukrainian regime change and the installation of a pro-Kremlin puppet regime. Russia’s demands for a ban on NATO expansion, Ukrainian neutrality, and regime change are the same demands that Russia issued before the war in 2021 and when Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Putin reportedly maintains his demand that Ukraine cede all of the four oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed but not fully occupied, even as Kremlin officials have signaled that Russia has territorial ambitions beyond these four oblasts. A Reuters source reportedly stated that Putin is less inclined now to make territorial compromises and continues to demand the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — including the areas that Russian forces do not currently occupy. The source stated that “Putin has toughened his position” about territory.
Putin first demanded in June 2024 that Ukraine cede all of the four oblasts, and Russian officials have often reiterated this demand since. The Washington Post reported on May 27 that Ukrainian military intelligence assesses that the Russian military command has deployed 125,000 personnel to the borders of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts — two oblasts that Russia has not illegally annexed. Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations aimed at creating a buffer zone in Kharkiv Oblast since May 2024. Russian forces also recently launched attacks to create a buffer zone in northern Sumy Oblast, with Russian officials calling for Russia to seize Sumy City, likely to set conditions for Russia to annex the oblast.
Russia will likely struggle to seize the entirety of the four illegally annexed oblasts, especially as the seizure of the heavily fortified fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast and the forcing of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast will require significantly larger force groupings than the forces currently deployed in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Russian military command would have solely concentrated its efforts on seizing all of the four oblasts if the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions were truly limited to the four oblasts, but the deployment of significant forces to attack in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts suggests that Russia intends to increase its territorial demands. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin maintains significant territorial ambitions in southern and eastern Ukraine, and Russian officials within Putin’s innermost circle have even called for Russia to take control of most of the country.
Putin continues to demonstrate his willingness to achieve his war aims militarily through a prolonged war in Ukraine during which Russian forces would continue to only make gradual, creeping advances. One of Reuters’ sources reportedly stated that Putin will try to use military victories to show Ukraine and Europe that “peace tomorrow will be even more painful” if Putin is unable to secure his desired terms in a peace deal. The source stated that Putin would take advantage of any tactical battlefield opportunities to advance further into Ukraine and that Putin believes that Russia can fight for years in the face of any sanctions or other economic measures the West might place on Russia in the future. ISW has long assessed that Putin holds a theory of victory that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances indefinitely and to outlast and overcome Western military aid to Ukraine and Ukraine’s own efforts to mobilize.
Russia will likely be able to continue its current tactics that are resulting in gradual, creeping advances as long as Russia is able to replenish its losses on the frontline. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on May 28 that almost 175,000 people have arrived at military units and that more than 14,000 people have joined volunteer units since the start of 2025, for a total of roughly 1,285 people per day.[16] Medvedev also reiterated Putin’s May 13 claim that 50,000 to 60,000 people voluntarily join the Russian military per month. Putin’s claimed recruitment rate is notably higher than Medvedev’s, and ISW cannot independently verify these claims. Reports from the Ukrainian General Staff about Russia’s daily losses indicate that Russian suffered a daily loss rate of 1,550 per day in January 2025; 1,261 in February 2025; 1,312 in March 2025; 1,219 in April 2025; and 1,140 between May 1 and May 28. Medvedev’s May 28 claim that 175,000 soldiers have joined Russian military units since January 2025 indicates that Russia is replenishing its units at about a one-for-one ratio to its loss rate. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces, supported by Western aid, can inflict higher personnel loss rates on the battlefield that could push Putin to make difficult decisions and force Putin to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war.
The Kremlin continues to promote its long-standing false narratives that the threat of NATO expansion forced Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, and that NATO continues to threaten Russia’s security. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Russia is alarmed by the accumulation of NATO troops along Russia’s border and that NATO’s eastern expansion and discussions to bring Ukraine into the alliance triggered Russia into launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed that NATO has deployed 34,200 troops on its “eastern flank” — which runs from Finland to Turkey — since February 2022. ISW continues to assess that Putin did not invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO but because he believed that NATO was weak and aimed to destroy the alliance.
Germany to help Ukraine produce long-range weapons
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin on Wednesday. Ukraine and Germany have agreed to future military cooperation in which Berlin will help finance long-range weapons production on Ukrainian soil. According to media reports, Kyiv’s domestic production of drones and missiles could be scaled up.
“Our defense ministers will sign a letter of intent today on procuring long-range weapon systems produced in Ukraine — so-called Long Range Fires,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Wednesday during a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Berlin, according to Politico. “There will be no restrictions on range.”
That builds on a broader 5 billion euro military aid package unveiled the same day by the German defense ministry. It includes German financing for the production of long-range weapons in Ukraine which are already in service with Ukrainian forces and can be deployed within weeks. Germany will also send its weapons to Ukraine, including air defense systems, DW said.
The move marks a new level of bilateral cooperation both in terms of financing and technology, DW continued. Until now, Ukraine and Germany have been jointly producing artillery systems and repairing armored vehicles.
During the visit, Ukraine also signed a contract with Germany’s Diehl Defence for the production of IRIS-T air defense systems and missiles for them, Ukrainian Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov announced on Wednesday.
Umerov was part of the Ukrainian delegation visiting Berlin. “I held an important meeting with my colleague and friend, the German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. We’ve achieved concrete results — decisions that significantly strengthen our defense,” Umerov said.
In a comment to German television channel ZDF on Wednesday, Merz said that supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine was a possibility. “Of course, it is within the realms of possibility,” Merz said, responding to a question, according to European Pravda.
He added that Ukrainian troops will need to be trained for several months to operate the systems. Merz also said that transferring the systems in six months or a year would not benefit Ukraine today, so military support for Kyiv is being stepped up now.
Referring to further sanctions on Russia, Merz said, as cited by European Pravda: “Everything that can be done on a secure legal basis is possible.”
Russia has massed enough troops in Kursk to launch attack on Sumy region, Ukraine’s border guard service says
Russia has been massing forces in the Kursk region for several months and now has enough troops to advance into Ukraine’s Sumy region, spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, Andriy Demchenko said on national television on Thursday.
“The enemy has a large number of troops and materiel in the Kursk region,” he said.
Russia began to mass forces there when it tried to eject Ukrainian troops from the area, he added.
“That is the reason why the enemy holds [its forces] there. We see that the number of their troops and weapons in this section is changing. They have enough forces there to attempt an attack across the border into Ukrainian territory,” Demchenko said.
