Ukraine’s counterattacks in the south cause cascading effects for Russian forces, ISW says. Russia is intensifying its campaign of strikes against Ukrainian ports and railway infrastructure. A Russian airstrike on Slovyansk kills four.
Ukraine’s counterattacks in the south cause cascading effects for Russian forces, ISW says
Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking not only in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions but also in western Zaporizhia Oblast. These counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects that may disrupt Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive campaign plan, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Monday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Russian forces began making relatively fast gains in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late October and early November 2025. The Russian military command likely hoped to exploit those advances to enable a Russian assault of Orikhiv from the east and west, which would allow Russian forces to outflank Ukraine’s well-fortified defensive lines in Zaporizhia Oblast that run east to west rather than trying to advance using frontal assaults from the south.
ISW assessed in early December 2025 that the 5th CAA’s (Combined Arms Army) tactical breakthrough north and northeast of Hulyaipole could enable Russian forces to achieve operational successes in both the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions. The Russian military command indicated on December 29 that it intended to join the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole directions in order to advance on Zaporizhzhia City.
Russian forces are thus facing a far more difficult battlefield situation in southern Ukraine in early March than they did at the start of 2026. Ukrainian forces have tied up Russian forces in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions and Russian forces have had to rapidly adapt to communication and command and control (C2) problems resulting from the February 1 Starlink block.
Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking not only in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions but also in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 9 that the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces (GoF), which includes the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) and operates in western Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, has “virtually halted” advances near Orikhiv and in the area just south of Zaporizhzhia City, west of Orikhiv. Mashovets reported that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Richne-Prymorske direction (both south of Zaporizhzhia City) forced Russian small groups to retreat from northern and central Prymorske. Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of Novoyakolivka and northern Lukyanivkse (both southeast of Zaporizhzhia City) and noted that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces south of Pavlivka (just south of Novoyakolivka).
The cascading effects that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole, and Zaporizhia directions have generated in other sectors of the front show how constrained the Russian force structure in Ukraine really is. ISW has previously observed reports that Russian forces have already had to deploy forces from their operational reserve simply to support ongoing combat operations — likely including in Kupyansk where Ukraine has conducted a series of successful counterattacks.
In other news, a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation continues in the Oleksandrivka direction, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a post to social media on Monday. The Oleksandrivka direction comprises parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro regions. Ukrainian troops have regained control of more than 400 square kilometers of land since the beginning of the operation, Syrskyi said.
Ukraine’s defense forces have regained control of almost the entire region of Dnipro, head of the Main Operational Department of Ukraine’s General Staff, Major General Oleksandr Komarenko told RBC Ukraine in an interview that was published on Tuesday. There is still “work to be done” in three small towns and villages, and two more are to be mopped up, he said.
Ukraine’s counterattacks in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late January greatly complicated Russian plans to advance rapidly to Orikhiv and then Zaporizhzhia City from the east, ISW said. Commander of the Dmytro Kotsyubaylo 1st Separate Assault Regiment, Captain Dmytro Filatov whose unit takes part in the counterattacks in the Hulyaipole direction, told RFERL in an interview released on Sunday that Russia considers “the Zaporizhzhia direction as the next one to have an impact on [Ukraine’s] armed forces.”
Russia intensifying campaign of strikes against Ukrainian ports, railway infrastructure
Russia is intensifying its campaign of strikes against Ukrainian ports and railway infrastructure. Ukrainian news site Economichna Pravda looks at the damage that the attacks are causing to Ukraine’s economy and explores whether they can disrupt the country’s logistics lines. The following is an abridged version of the article published on March 10 that we translated into English.
Ukrainians live through the consequences of Russia’s drone and missiles strikes on the country’s power grid. In the past months, Russia also intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s ports and railway infrastructure.
In the four years of war, Russia destroyed or damaged 686 sites of ports infrastructure, 150 civilian ships and almost 24,000 railway facilities.
The strikes on ports and railway sites are meant to complicate Ukraine’s military logistics and weaken its economy by hampering the exports.
In 2024, Russia carried out 36 attacks on Ukrainian ports. In 2025, the number stood at 96. In the past months, the capacity of Odesa ports shrunk. Russia damaged 39 ships in Ukrainian sea ports and ones on the Danube in the past year.
There is no deficit of imports or exports, co-founder of the Marevia shipping company, Oleksandr Nikulin told Economichna Pravda. The key problem is the ship owners’ readiness to take risks.
After recent Russian major attacks on ports infrastructure the number of ship owners willing to work in Ukraine largely fell. A sunflower oil storage tank and a grain storage facility were damaged in a March 7 attack on ports in Odesa region. Storage and industrial facilities sustained damaged in a strike on February 27.
“A key factor for the owners is the risks to the ship and crew as well as the ship’s downtime as a result of infrastructure damage,” Nikulin said. It is increasingly difficult to find the fleet to carry the cargo, especially coaster vessels.
Russia is also systematically striking Ukraine’s railway facilities with rolling stock being among the main targets. It strikes both passenger and freight cars and targets locomotives. Russian drones also hunt down the railroad repair equipment.
Ukrzaliznytsia, the national railway operator, estimates the damage from Russian attacks at USD 5.8 million. In 2025 alone, Russia carried out more than 1,100 attacks on Ukraine’s railway facilities.
“The Russian military understands that the strikes on railroads are inefficient. If railway tracks are damaged, repair brigades can lay new ones in a few hours, they have what they need to do the repairs. Meanwhile Ukrzaliznytsia reroutes the trains, Ukraine has a wide railway network,” head of the Association of Ukrainian Rail Freight Forwarders, Volodymyr Naumov told Economichna Pravda.
Russia is targeting traction power substations and railway nodes that would take more time to repair. Switches would need to be repaired to restore the nodes. “Ukraine lacks diesel and electric locomotives. Ukrzaliznytsia’s fleet is worn out by 80 per cent. It cannot be quickly replaced. Ukrzaliznytsia is making agreements with other countries that have the railway gauge of the same width to buy or rent locomotives from them,” Naumov said.
Russia cannot stop all logistics lines, but can create hours-long delays in some sections.
Russian airstrike on Slovyansk kills four
A Russian airstrike on the city of Slovyansk in Donetsk region on Tuesday morning killed four people and injured 21 others, head of the regional military administration, Vadym Filashkin said on social media. Russia dropped three glide bombs on the city, he said, adding that a 14-year-old girl was among the wounded. The strike damaged 12 apartment buildings, two private houses, an administrative building and 20 cars.
Russia targets Slovyansk almost daily. An airstrike on March 3 killed at least one person, wounded two others and damaged private houses. Three workers of the Slovyansk thermal power plant were killed on February 17 when a Russian drone struck their car traveling nearby.
