Russia fires Kalibr missiles at Odesa overnight, killing three, and injuring 13 others. Ukrainian troops continue to advance, making gradual gains. Putin meets with milbloggers, ISW analyzes his statements.
Russia fires Kalibr missiles at Odesa overnight, killing three, injuring 13
Overnight on June 14, Russia launched four Kalibr cruise missiles at Odesa, killing three and injuring 13 others.
Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three of four Kalibr missiles. A business center, an educational institution, apartment buildings, restaurants and shops were damaged by a blast wave and falling debris.
One of the missiles hit a food warehouse, causing destruction of an area of 1,000 square meters and setting 400 square meters ablaze. Three warehouse employees were killed, and seven others wounded. The debris were cleaned up after several hours.
Russia also struck the eastern parts of the country with missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted by Ukraine’s air defenses.
In Donetsk region, Russian Kh-22 missiles hit private houses, killing two in Kramatorsk and injuring two others. One person was killed in Kostyantynivka, and two more wounded.
In Kirovohradska region, Iranian-made Shahed drones hit an infrastructure facility in Svitlovodsk. There were no casualties.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down all the Shahed drones that were aimed at Dnipropetrovska region.
Ukrainian troops destroyed nine of 10 Shahed drones, and three of four Kalibr missiles that Russia launched overnight. There were no reports of intercepted Kh-22 missiles. Before Ukraine received a limited number of Patriot missile defense systems, the Ukrainian Air Force said it had no system capable of intercepting and downing this type of missiles.
Ukrainian troops continue to advance, making gradual gains
Ukrainian troops continue to advance, making gains on the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia axes despite the Russian edge in artillery and air power. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on Telegram: “Ukrainian troops have advanced 200 meters to 500 meters at various sections on the Bakhmut axis and 300 meters to 350 meters on the Zaporizhzhia axis.”
On the Berdyansk front, fighting rages near Makarivka. On the Mariupol front, Ukrainian troops are battling near Novodanylivka and Novopokrovsk, she added.
Malyar said that Ukrainian troops were moving in the conditions of extremely fierce battles, under Russian air and artillery superiority.
Russian forces are taking casualties and suffering material losses. In the past day, Russia lost a battery of self-propelled howitzers, two electronic warfare systems, up to 10 vehicles, a counter-battery radar system, and a missile defense system.
Putin meets with milbloggers, ISW analyzes his statements
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with pro-war military bloggers, as Ukrainian troops continue to conduct counteroffensive operations. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) breaks down the statements he made. Putin largely met with milbloggers closely associated with the Russian state-owned outlets, notably excluding milbloggers who have been more critical of Putin’s war effort.
Putin addressed several key milblogger concerns relating to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian objectives in Ukraine, Russian mobilization and the possibility of imposing martial law, the formalization of private military companies (PMCs), and hostile incursions into Belgorod Oblast.
Putin discussed the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and signaled that he believes Russia can outlast Western military support for Ukraine.
Putin may be attempting to systematically amplify and misrepresent Ukrainian losses of Western military equipment to portray Ukraine’s counteroffensive as failed and discourage the West from continuing to support Ukraine.
Putin indicated that he is unwilling to announce a second wave of mobilization or declare martial law, despite maintaining his maximalist objectives in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Putin is a risk-averse actor who is hesitant to upset Russian society by ordering another mobilization wave or establishing martial law throughout Russia, indicating that Putin has not yet decided to fully commit to fighting a total war.
Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general. Putin’s comments indicate that the Kremlin does not intend to react to cross-border operations in an effort to preserve forces for combat in Ukraine, despite growing discontent within Russia prompted by the raids. Putin also confirmed that Russian conscripts are serving in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces are likely deploying conscripts to serve in border oblasts due to a lack of reserves and an unwillingness to transfer forces away from the frontline elsewhere in Ukraine.
Putin discussed the importance of formalizing volunteer formations, supporting the Russian MoD’s measures to centralize its control over operations in Ukraine. Putin emphasized that the Russian government cannot provide social guarantees to volunteer structures without signed contracts. Putin’s emphasis on the legality of volunteer formations suggests that Putin may be intending to either assert direct control over or set conditions to ban state assistance to select private military organizations (PMCs) such as the Wagner Group, which are technically illegal under the Russian law.
Putin is likely continuing to publicly engage with, and platform select pro-Kremlin milbloggers to further leverage the community to expand his support among Russian ultranationalists, the Institute for the Study of War said.
Unraveling Ownership: The Challenge of Seizing Russian Assets in Ukraine. Ukraine in Flames #461
In this episode we discuss progress in the seizure of Russian assets in Ukraine, with 21 cases of assets being taken away due to sanctions. Even with complex ownership structures and nominal owners, proving ownership remains difficult. Compliance with international standards is also an issue, which could lead to appeals in international courts. Changes to the law and greater consistency are required to expedite the process and reduce risks. Successful cases have set important precedents, hastening the process, but the exact amount of assets recovered is still unknown. Watch Ukraine in Flames #461 to learn more about the precedent of confiscation of state assets.
Guests:
- Natalia Sichevliuk, Legal Advisor at Transparency International Ukraine
- Tetiana Khutor, Head of the NGO Institute of Legislative Ideas
