Russia’s military buildup in Belarus and Ukraine’s east, leaders of France, Germany in Kyiv, and more – Weekly Update on Ukraine #5, 31 January-6 February

Situation in the combat zone

On February 6, Russia-backed militants made two attacks, Ukraine’s Joint Forces command reported. They fired toward Vodyane in Donetsk region from anti-tank shoulder launched grenade launchers. Near Pisky, Russia’s proxies fired upon the Ukrainian troops’ positions from anti-tank tripod-mounted grenade launchers. There were no casualties to Ukraine’s Joint Forces. There were similar attacks throughout last week.  

Russia’s build-up in Ukraine’s east. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine spotted amassment of multiple launch rocket systems, tanks, and other materiel in the area beyond government control in eastern Ukraine. In Luhansk region, 22 multiple launch rocket systems and ten howitzers were deployed in violation of agreed withdrawal lines, the mission said. Russia’s hybrid forces positioned a multiple launch rocket system and four howitzers at an airfield near Peremozhne, located 19 km south of Luhansk.  

Russian troops, materiel mass in Belarus

New satellite images released by Maxar Technologies show the buildup of materiel at three locations in Belarus within 50 km of the Ukraine border.

Maxar, a U.S. space technology company has continuously provided satellite images of a buildup of Russian military deployments near the Ukraine border. It released the first photos of a massive buildup of troops in late December 2021. In mid-January, satellite images showed less equipment, but the materiel was deployed at training grounds within 10 to 20 km of the Ukraine border. Maxar said it had noticed a buildup of troops and equipment at the training area, particularly of Iskander-M ballistic missiles.    

Recent satellite images show military deployments in Belarus on Ukraine’s border ahead of joint military drills between Russia and Belarus, named United Resolve, to take place on February 10-20. 

Maxar said it had collected images of military hardware near Yelsk, Rechitsa and Luninets on February 4. All locations are within 50 km of the Ukrainian border.

Satellite images showed what Maxar Technologies identified as 15 Su-25 ground attack aircraft and an S-400 missile system at Luninets airfield, and SS-26 Iskander missiles and multiple launch rocket systems near Yelsk.

During the drills, Belarus and Russia will simulate a defense scenario at the southern border of the Union State (on Belarus’s border with Ukraine), the Secretary of Belarus’s Security Council Alyaksandr Volfovich said.

In an interview with Kremlin’s propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, self-proclaimed Belarussian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said Ukraine will join the Unity State in 15 years. 

Lukashenko has repeatedly said that they will “return Ukraine to the bosom of Slavs”. His statements come amid fears of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine and a possible incursion from Belarus.

Diplomatic avenues: French President, German Chancellor to visit Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron heads to Moscow on February 7. He is set to meet with Russian President Putin, France24 reports.

Ahead of the visit, Macron spoke with U.S. President Biden. In the 40-minute call, the leaders coordinated positions.  

The presidents discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, the White House said in a statement.

Macron also held a phone call with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The security and sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be a subject for compromise in talks with Russia, Macron said.

On February 8, the French President will fly to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyi.

Olaf Scholz is set to make his first visit to Ukraine on February 14 since becoming the German Chancellor. Germany is one of Ukraine’s major partners and allies, its mediation efforts in the Normandy quad crucial, said the Office of the President of Ukraine.  

“The visit of the German Chancellor is a show of Euro-Atlantic unity and support for Ukraine amid security challenges facing Europe,” the Office of the President said.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported that Scholz is expected to be in Kyiv on February 14 and in Moscow the next day.

The German Chancellor will meet with the U.S. president in Washington on February 7-8.

How Ukraine is fighting COVID-19

On February 6, Ukraine recorded 23,378 cases, and 115 deaths. On weekends, the daily average of new cases drops. Last week, daily cases neared 44,000.

Throughout the pandemic, Ukraine has reported 4,307,437 cases, 101,392 deaths, and 3,681,092 recoveries.

Vaccinations. Since vaccinations began in Ukraine, 15,458,480 people have received the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, 14,780,566 people have been immunized with two doses, and 459,230 people have received a booster shot.