Unpacking Global Potential of Taiwan’s Election Results

William Lai, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, has won Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election with just over 40 percent of the vote, according to opinion polls. The outcome of the election is critical for global stakeholders due to ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, China’s increasing use of “grey zone” tactics and the growing likelihood of military action.

Despite Lai’s victory, the DPP lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, creating an obstacle for Lai and potentially forcing him to compromise on implementing the DPP agenda. The election results affect the United States, as Taiwan remains an essential partner in technology, health and security.

The result also has significant implications for US-China relations, as Russia played an essential role in the information operation against the Taiwan election. Does Beijing maintain tension in the region to wear down the US before a potential war, for which mainland China itself is not ready?

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